A Natural Gas Flow Model under Uncertainty in Demand

Background for the model: The model tries to determine optimal allocation of natural gas in the time horizon between 1 and 3 years by minimizing both • shortages of natural gas and • the direct costs of supplying natural gas. In order to obtain these goals, the time horizon is divided into smaller decision time periods whose durations depend on the following: • The uncertainty in future weather conditions • The demand for natural gas due to changes in weather conditions • The expected demand for natural gas that can be estimated through “reasonable extrapolation of past data” by taking consideration of 1. availability of natural gas 2. population growth 3. per capita income